Impact of Libyan Situation Discussed at Middle East Downstream Week in May

Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates, March 26, 2011 --( Total’s Senior Vice President, Strategy, Jean-Jacques Mosconi says, "There is no risk of oil shortage due to the current situation in Libya." Mr Mosconi is part of a high-level line-up of experts which will address the upcoming Middle East Downstream Week from 8-11 May in Abu Dhabi, UAE. The political uncertainty in many parts of the Middle East will form part of the discussions by industry attendees, including NOCs, IOCs, petrochemical producers, refiners, fuel marketers and distributors in addition to policy makers, independent oil and gas experts and technology leaders.

Libya barely 2.3% of Total’s global production
According to Total’s Jean-Jacques Mosconi, although Total’s production in Libya has stopped, it represents “55KBD, barely 2.3% of the global production of Total.” He says the country’s oil production dropped from 1.6MBD (before the insurrection) to 0.3MBD now, “But this lack of production is being compensated by Saudi Arabia.” He continues: “After that, there will still be 3MBD of spare capacity, a reduced number of course but still higher than the one at the beginning of 2008. There is no risk of oil shortage. For gas, Europe has large long term contracts with Russia and Qatar.”

JV projects in Qatar and Saudi Arabia on track
Mr Mosconi says the Total joint venture projects in Qatar and Saudi Arabia are both progressing well: “Our steam cracker project based on ethane in Qatar started last year and is bringing a lot of value. The Jubail project is going very well. I did visit the location recently and all the packages are well on track; the relationship with Aramco is excellent.”

Europe and Asia
He notes that the sale of the Lindsey refinery in North Lincolnshire in Britain is the last piece of Total’s strategy of reducing its exposure to the European refining business by 500KBJ over the period between 2007 and 2011. “This target has been overshot anyway with the sale of our stake in CEPSA to IPIC,” he says.

Regarding opportunities in Asia Mr Mosconi says, “We currently have a 22% stake in the WEPEC refinery in Dalian, China. We are trying to jump into an integrated refining petrochemical project but it is not easy because of the regulated price system above $80 with the risk of a refining margin squeeze.”

Global market to improve progressively
Mr Mosconi sees the global refining market progressively improving, especially after 2013. “At that time,” he notes, “OECD demand will have recovered to some extent, even if the bulk of the growth will remain in emerging markets like China, India and the Middle East. The ongoing rationalisation process in Europe and in the US will have also brought results.”

More of the high profile industry personalities who will address the Middle East Downstream Week in Abu Dhabi include:

- Jasem Ali Al Sayegh, General Manager, Abu Dhabi Oil Refining Company (Takreer)
- Solomon Mirza, Vice President, Strategic Planning and Capital Allocation, Shell
- Bakhit Al Rashidi, Deputy Managing Director for Planning and Local Marketing, Kuwait National Petroleum Company (KNPC)
- Dr. Partha Maitra, President, Petroleum Business, Reliance Industries
- Dr. Samir Elkareish, Director of Technical Affairs, Organization of Arab Petroleum Exporting Countries (OAPEC)
- Norman Gilsdorf, President, Honeywell Process Solutions

Event dates:

- Axens Middle East Refining Seminar: 8 May 2011
- Downstream Integration Workshop: 8 May 2011
- Main Conference: 9-10 May 2011
- Middle East Fuels Symposium: 11 May 2011
- TAKREER Ruwais Site Visit: 11 May 2011

Middle East Downstream Week
Annemarie Roodbol
+27 21 700 3558