Early Voting Tops One Million as New Survey Highlights Independent Voters’ Role in 2026 Texas Primaries

Austin, TX, February 26, 2026 --(PR.com)-- Early voting turnout is up in the Lone Star State, with a nearly double increase in voter turnout in the Democratic primary (3.3%) and 0.2% decrease in Republican turnout (2.8%), compared to 2024. More than one million Texans cast early ballots during the first week of voting for the March 3 party primaries, according to data from the Texas Secretary of State. This could signal a new class of Independent voters that might shape the midterm - those that crossed over from the Republican to Democratic primary, or new voters who haven’t participated in primaries or general elections in the past two cycles.

With a large number of Americans identifying as independent, their engagement and candidate evaluations in early primary contests could carry implications well beyond Texas. A new survey from BallotReady, conducted February 8–14, 2026 in partnership with Tavern Research with consultation from independent political scientists, suggests that independent voters could play a decisive role in this higher-turnout environment. The survey polled 1,070 registered Texas voters (±5.5% margin of error). Ninety percent identified as independent, with the remaining 10% identifying as neither Republican, Democrat, nor independent.

Democratic Primary Findings
Participants viewed clips from the January 24, 2026 AFL-CIO Democratic primary debate between James Talarico and Jasmine Crockett. Before viewing the clips, Talarico led 56–44 among independents. After watching the debate segments, he was preferred 76–24. His support increased by 19 points following debate exposure, compared with a 9-point increase for Crockett. On specific issues, Talarico led Crockett by 46 points on affordability and 52 points on healthcare.

Beyond the issues, the debate surfaced a difference in style and presentation that resulted in the surveyed independents preferring Talarico with a 3 to 1 margin over Crockett. As a candidate who has built his brand appearing measured and open to debate on Fox News and Joe Rogan, Independents sited their preferences around his ability to discuss issues in a calm, confident demeanor (32%) and his being relatable (28%) and prepared, knowledgeable and specific plans (28%).

Republican Primary Findings
Survey participants also reviewed policy positions from John Cornyn, Wesley Hunt, and Ken Paxton.

Overall independent preference broke:
41% Hunt
38% Cornyn
20% Paxton

Cornyn led on border security, healthcare, the economy and taxes, and affordability when respondents evaluated policy substance alone. Hunt performed more strongly on overall campaign message, while Paxton trailed both candidates in independent preference.

In the end, Cornyn led on specific policy substance, while Hunt has the stronger overall campaign message appeal. This may in part be related to Cornyn’s embrace of President Trump, one of the strongest reasons Independent voters gave for disliking him (30%).

Broader Context
Primary elections determine which candidates will appear on the November ballot. Early voting trends — including more than one million ballots cast in the first week — suggest voter engagement is higher than at the same stage of the last midterm cycle.

Research from the University of Texas Texas Politics Project has found moderates and independents increasingly influential in statewide elections. Nationally, Gallup reported in 2025 that a record share of U.S. adults identify as independent.

Together, the survey data and early turnout figures indicate that independent voters — particularly those responsive to economic and affordability messaging — could play a meaningful role in shaping the outcome of the 2026 Texas primaries and potentially competitive contests elsewhere.

About BallotReady
BallotReady is a free, nonpartisan civic platform providing fact-checked, ballot-specific information to help voters explore every race and measure, make a voting plan, and participate in civic life.